In a previous note last month, we said one of the biggest deflationary threats looms over the U.S. economy, that is, birth rates have fallen to their lowest level in a generation. Diving deeper into the baby bust, new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data shows nine months after the virus pandemic was first declared a national emergency, U.S. births plunged 8% in December, according to Bloomberg.
CDC data showed an acceleration in birth declines for the second half of 2020. Full-year data shows that the number of babies born countrywide fell 4% to 3.6 million, the most significant decline since 1973, the start of the stagflation of the 1970s.
The latest CDC data disproves the mainstream media’s narrative of a “COVID Baby Boom” as much of the nation was cooped up in their homes during lockdowns.
The data appears to show millennials were not in the ‘mood’ to have a child during the global health catastrophe. The declines in births have been occurring for several years as the younger generation, trapped in insurmountable debts, can barely afford rent and groceries, nevertheless raise a child.
On a state-by-state basis, California in December led the declines, which plummeted 19%. For the second half of the year, New Mexico, New York, Hawaii, and West Virginia saw decreases ranging from 8% to 11%.
We noted California’s population continues to drop as a mass exodus of residents escapes the liberal hell hole of high taxes, unaffordable homes, and violent crime. The younger generation in the state appears to be having fewer children, exacerbated by the pandemic.
Bloomberg shows a shocking chart that when factoring all the deaths in 2020 and into 1Q21, including virus-related deaths, U.S. births only exceeded deaths by 45,000 in February and March.
In terms of race, births in December had the most significant reduction among Asians, plunging 19% from the same period in 2019.
What this shows are some early signs of a COVID baby bust. But most of this is a continuation of a trend that’s been happening for more than a decade. With birthrates faltering and debts soaring. We believe the primary secular economic trend is, and has been for at least a decade is deflation – as we’ve said before, Japan is a microcosm of what America is facing as the “3-D’s” of debt, deflation, and the inevitability of demographics implosion continues to widen the wealth gap.